Sunday, May 30, 2010
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
Summary of current situation in the landslide at Attabad
This is a summary of the current situation with the landslide. Data correct to 11th May 2010 (10th May for NDMA data). Red indicates a rising trend from the previous reading and purple a falling trend. Orange numbers indicate no change. All data courtesy of Focus Humanitarian Assistance unless otherwise indicated. Please see notes of caution at the end of this post.
Please note that I am now calculating the date on which there will be flow through the spillway using the rate of increase for the last 24 hours. This is because the rate of increase in water level is now increasing quite quickly.
Current estimated date on which water will start to flow through the spillway:
Estimate based on current (24 hour rate) of increase of water level: 25th May 2010
Water flow through the spillway may occur sooner than this date.
Depth of lake (NDMA data) : 95.45 m (10th May)
Depth of lake (Focus data): 98.38 m
Freeboard (Focus data): 12.11 m
Length of lake: 15.80 km
Rate of inflow: 67.50 cubic metres per second (last measurement = 4th May)
Total seepage (NDMA data): 1.70 cubic metres per second (10th May)
Total seepage (Focus data): 2.05 cubic metres per second
Average rate of decrease of freeboard over the last 24 hours: 83.84 cm per day
Number of days to water flow at current rate of freeboard loss: 14 days
Estimated date of water flow through the spillway based on rate of loss of freeboard for last 24 hours (see note below): 25th May 2010. Actual flow may occur earlier than this date.
Important: The calculation of days to water flow through the spillway is subject to substantial uncertainty and must not be used for planning purposes. The rate at which the lake fills changes considerably with time according to variations in the rate of inflow, the rate of seepage, the rate of excavation of the channel, the shape of the valley etc. Under some circumstances, such as an earthquake, a landslide into the lake or rapid piping failure flow could start earlier.
Posted by Dr Dave at 5:27 PM 1 comments
Labels: Attabad, Hunza, landslide dam, Pakistan
Seepage at the landslide dam at Attabad in Hunza
Latest update: 12th May 2010 using data up to 11th May 2010
Please note that I am now calculating the date on which there will be flow through the spillway using the rate of increase for the last 24 hours. This is because the rate of increase in water level is now increasing quite quickly.
Current estimated date on which water will start to flow through the spillway:
Estimate based on current (24 hour rate) of increase of water level: 25th May 2010
Water flow through the spillway may occur sooner than this date.
Depth of lake (NDMA data) : 95.45 m (10th May)
Depth of lake (Focus data): 98.38 m
Freeboard (Focus data): 12.11 m
Length of lake: 15.80 km
Rate of inflow: 67.50 cubic metres per second (last measurement = 4th May)
Total seepage (NDMA data): 1.70 cubic metres per second (10th May)
Total seepage (Focus data): 2.05 cubic metres per second
Average rate of decrease of freeboard over the last 24 hours: 83.84 cm per day
Number of days to water flow at current rate of freeboard loss: 14 days
Estimated date of water flow through the spillway based on rate of loss of freeboard for last 24 hours (see note below): 25th May 2010. Actual flow may occur earlier than this date.
Important: The calculation of days to water flow through the spillway is subject to substantial uncertainty and must not be used for planning purposes. The rate at which the lake fills changes considerably with time according to variations in the rate of inflow, the rate of seepage, the rate of excavation of the channel, the shape of the valley etc. Under some circumstances, such as an earthquake, a landslide into the lake or rapid piping failure flow could start earlier.
Posted by Dr Dave at 5:27 PM 1 comments
Labels: Attabad, Hunza, landslide dam, Pakistan
Seepage at the landslide dam at Attabad in Hunza
Latest update: 12th May 2010 using data up to 11th May 2010
STRIKE IN ALIABAD HUNZA
Hunza, May 12: Hundreds of people participated in a peaceful protest in Aliabad, sub-divisional headquarter of Hunza, against the widespread destructions in Gojal Tehsil due to inability of the authorities to drain the lake formed on Hunza River according to announced target dates. The protest was addressed by leaders of nationalist parties,office bearers of Hunza Business Association and Hunza-Nagar Transport Associations. The protestors blocked KKH for four hours and chanted slogans against the role of the Government and the National Disaster Management Authority.
The protesters blamed General (rtd.) Farooq Ahmed Khan, the former Chairman NDMA, for playing ‘a suspicious role during the disaster’. They demanded of the Government to register FIR against NDMA for consciously letting the community and state properties submerge in the lake.
They said the authorities were not serious in earlier release of water from the lake which has now submerged more than 90 houses, thousands of kanals of lands and domesticated plants in Shishkat, Ayeenabad and Gulmit. They said the authorities are responsible for inundation of the 15 kilometer of the strategic Karakoram Highway and the bridges connecting Pakistan and China.
They said the Government has not taken concrete steps to reduce the sufferings of the people after 129 days for the incident. The speakers also said that removal of the bridge between Gilgit and Danyore has resulted in hiked prices of petroleum and essential goods in Hunza-Nagar district. They also blamed the Gilgit police and administration for taking bribes to allow the crossing of the trucks to Hunza-Nagar.
The protesters blamed General (rtd.) Farooq Ahmed Khan, the former Chairman NDMA, for playing ‘a suspicious role during the disaster’. They demanded of the Government to register FIR against NDMA for consciously letting the community and state properties submerge in the lake.
They said the authorities were not serious in earlier release of water from the lake which has now submerged more than 90 houses, thousands of kanals of lands and domesticated plants in Shishkat, Ayeenabad and Gulmit. They said the authorities are responsible for inundation of the 15 kilometer of the strategic Karakoram Highway and the bridges connecting Pakistan and China.
They said the Government has not taken concrete steps to reduce the sufferings of the people after 129 days for the incident. The speakers also said that removal of the bridge between Gilgit and Danyore has resulted in hiked prices of petroleum and essential goods in Hunza-Nagar district. They also blamed the Gilgit police and administration for taking bribes to allow the crossing of the trucks to Hunza-Nagar.
NASA RELEASES NEW ASTER IMAGE OF ATTABAD LAKE
NASA have released a new ASTER image of the lake that continues to build behind the landslide at Attabad in Hunza, N. Pakistan. Included in this image is the outline of the lake as it was in their image in March, showing the increase in surface area:
A couple of things to note on this image:
1. The red areas indicate vegetation. Given that this area is very close to being a high altitude desert, this indicates the location of cultivated areas. The image clearly illustrates the way in which cropland is now being inundated;
2. The cultivated area on the southern side of the image is Shiskat, which is built on a fan. The image dramatically shows how the recent growth of the extent of the lake has left this area completely isolated. If the lake were to last through the summer then this area is likely to face serious challenges next winter;
3. The danger posed by a further landslide into the lake creating a wave that could rapidly overtop the dam is dramatically illustrated here. There is no shortage of potentially unstable slopes. This is a source of very real worry to me now.
Meanwhile, the seepage rate continues to increase as the lake fills, and a new seepage point emerged yesterday. The graph of measured seepage against time shows the continuing increasing trend:
Whilst the seepage is not yet at worrying levels, the rate of internal erosion from this water flow could increase rapidly as the flow rate rises. Therefore, we need to continue to be mindful of the threat that this seepage potentially poses, especially in the last few days. We cannot rule out the possibility of a piping-induced failure.
The rate of increase of water level has slowed a little over the last few days, probably because the surface area of the lake has dramatically increased. Based on current rate of filling this has pushed the estimated date of water flow through the spillway back a little to 25th-28th May. This may well come forward again if the rate of inflow into the lake increases, which is what we would expect at this time of year. As of yesterday, the freeboard was just 12 metres, with the rate of rise of the water level being about 80 cm per day. Downward excavation of the spillway has now apparently ceased at a total depth of 14 metres (against the planned 30 m); the focus is now on widening the channel. As far as I am aware there is no armouring of the structure to prevent erosion.
NASA RELEASES NEW ASTER IMAGE OF ATTABAD LAKE
NASA have released a new ASTER image of the lake that continues to build behind the landslide at Attabad in Hunza, N. Pakistan. Included in this image is the outline of the lake as it was in their image in March, showing the increase in surface area:
A couple of things to note on this image:
1. The red areas indicate vegetation. Given that this area is very close to being a high altitude desert, this indicates the location of cultivated areas. The image clearly illustrates the way in which cropland is now being inundated;
2. The cultivated area on the southern side of the image is Shiskat, which is built on a fan. The image dramatically shows how the recent growth of the extent of the lake has left this area completely isolated. If the lake were to last through the summer then this area is likely to face serious challenges next winter;
3. The danger posed by a further landslide into the lake creating a wave that could rapidly overtop the dam is dramatically illustrated here. There is no shortage of potentially unstable slopes. This is a source of very real worry to me now.
Meanwhile, the seepage rate continues to increase as the lake fills, and a new seepage point emerged yesterday. The graph of measured seepage against time shows the continuing increasing trend:
Whilst the seepage is not yet at worrying levels, the rate of internal erosion from this water flow could increase rapidly as the flow rate rises. Therefore, we need to continue to be mindful of the threat that this seepage potentially poses, especially in the last few days. We cannot rule out the possibility of a piping-induced failure.
The rate of increase of water level has slowed a little over the last few days, probably because the surface area of the lake has dramatically increased. Based on current rate of filling this has pushed the estimated date of water flow through the spillway back a little to 25th-28th May. This may well come forward again if the rate of inflow into the lake increases, which is what we would expect at this time of year. As of yesterday, the freeboard was just 12 metres, with the rate of rise of the water level being about 80 cm per day. Downward excavation of the spillway has now apparently ceased at a total depth of 14 metres (against the planned 30 m); the focus is now on widening the channel. As far as I am aware there is no armouring of the structure to prevent erosion.
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
latest news
Chief of the Army Staff Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kiyani Monday visited Attabad area to review the rescue work where a 12.08-kilometre artificial lake has been formed by a massive landslide on January 04. The Jawans of Pakistan Army are not only participating in relief activities but are also trying their level best to avoid sudden outburst of the artificial lake. The Government of Gilgit-Baltistan had formally requested the Pakistan army to cope with natural calamity. The artificial lake was formed by a landslide in early January, which killed 19 people and blocked the Hunza River. During visit of Army Chief to Attabad, the engineers of Pakistan briefed him about the rescue work. They said they are trying to make 415 meter long, 40 meter width and 20 meter depth spillway and Frontier Works Organization (FWO) has been asked to execute the task. The Army Chief reviewed the rescue work in length and lauded the courage and work of army Jawans and FWO. The Army Chief was also informed that Pakistan army has also started a boat service so that food and other commodities could be dispatched to the affected people. According to the sources, Chief of the Army Staff Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kiyani directed FWO to complete the task as soon as possible.
BE HELPING
Sticks, stones and words: common parenting tools!
Posted on May 11, 2010 by Pamir Times
It was midnight and I was on almost half asleep when suddenly someone started screaming outside. I got up and rushed towards the door to see what was wrong there. Outside, I saw my neighbor violently beating her 6 year old son with a stick. The child was shouting aloud and continuously saying, “Please mama…please, I am sorry”. The pleas did not bother the mother and she continued beating the child. After a while, she abused the child in harsh words and slammed the door, going in her apartment.
The child was standing outside and looking at me with tearful eyes, as if asking me for help. I did not know what to do at that moment. That night I got so depressed and had very harsh feelings for my neighbor. How could a mother be so cruel, I thought. I really felt bad.
The very next day I went to my younger brother’s school as it was his result day. He got ‘A’ grade in all subjects except science. Her teacher praised the child and said that he was very good in sports as well. I was highly disappointed. “Sports, sports, sport… it is not
important. No more sports from now”, I made it very clear to my brother. “The next time I want an ‘A’ in all the subjects”, I told him, also giving the example of his friend, Raja. “Look at Raju. How intelligent he is!. he always comes first in the class but you are so lazy and careless”, I went on.
After saying this all, when I looked at my brother, he was full of tears. It reminded me of the neighbor’s child. I obviously felt bad.
Reflecting upon the incidents narrated above, many of you might feel that my “advice” was also tantamount to violence, equal in effect to beating with a stick!.
Marina Baig (BScN - AKUH)
Yes! What I did with my younger brother that day is commonly known as “Emotional abuse” and according to researches it is more traumatizing and destructive for a child than physical abuse.
Our society is now more educated and we have become more aware of our rights. We all know that sexual abuse, a sin, and physical abuse are really bad and should be avoided and stopped. Hundreds of organizations are working to stop these forms of abuse. But what about that abuse we inflict on our children everyday by by neglecting them, telling them that they are no good, worthless and stupid; shaming and humiliating a child, making negative comparisons to other children and siblings, frequent yelling and threatening them, putting high expectations on them, demanding for the fulfillment of unrealistic goals and imposing our decisions on them regardless of their own will? What do we think about all these actions? I am sure most of us have politically correct terms for these forms of violence against children.
Although emotional abuse cannot hurt as much as physical abuse does, but it can be harder to identify because the scars are left inside, hidden from the eyes. Emotional violence has long lasting effects throughout life, damaging the child’s sense of self.
Many research studies conclude that psycho-pathologic symptoms are more likely to develop in emotionally abused children. These children may experience a lifelong pattern of depression, anxiety, low self esteem, inappropriate or troubled relationships, or a lack of empathy. During their childhood victims may fail to thrive or their developmental progress may be halted. As teenagers they find it difficult to trust, participate in and achieve happiness in interpersonal relationships, and resolve the complex feelings left over from their childhood that they are no good in any thing.
Before ending up to that situation it is important, as parents or siblings, to assess your child right now for the symptoms of emotional abuse so that you can help them before they are completely crushed. Look for any of the behaviors in your child like excessively withdrawn, fearful, or anxious about doing some thing wrong, shows extreme in behaviors; extremely compliant or extremely demanding, extremely passive or extremely aggressive, doesn’t seem to be attached to you, acts either inappropriately adult (taking care of other children) or inappropriately infantile (thumb sucking, bed wetting).
Just remember, you can make a tremendous difference in the life of the child , especially if you take the steps to stop the abuse early by firstly talking to them, provide calm reassurance that they did nothing wrong , secondly allow to develop them strong attachment with you, and express warmth and positive regards for them. Finally always be there to support them in any circumstances. Now it’s up to you in which direction you mold your child’s personality positive or negative?
Posted on May 11, 2010 by Pamir Times
It was midnight and I was on almost half asleep when suddenly someone started screaming outside. I got up and rushed towards the door to see what was wrong there. Outside, I saw my neighbor violently beating her 6 year old son with a stick. The child was shouting aloud and continuously saying, “Please mama…please, I am sorry”. The pleas did not bother the mother and she continued beating the child. After a while, she abused the child in harsh words and slammed the door, going in her apartment.
The child was standing outside and looking at me with tearful eyes, as if asking me for help. I did not know what to do at that moment. That night I got so depressed and had very harsh feelings for my neighbor. How could a mother be so cruel, I thought. I really felt bad.
The very next day I went to my younger brother’s school as it was his result day. He got ‘A’ grade in all subjects except science. Her teacher praised the child and said that he was very good in sports as well. I was highly disappointed. “Sports, sports, sport… it is not
important. No more sports from now”, I made it very clear to my brother. “The next time I want an ‘A’ in all the subjects”, I told him, also giving the example of his friend, Raja. “Look at Raju. How intelligent he is!. he always comes first in the class but you are so lazy and careless”, I went on.
After saying this all, when I looked at my brother, he was full of tears. It reminded me of the neighbor’s child. I obviously felt bad.
Reflecting upon the incidents narrated above, many of you might feel that my “advice” was also tantamount to violence, equal in effect to beating with a stick!.
Marina Baig (BScN - AKUH)
Yes! What I did with my younger brother that day is commonly known as “Emotional abuse” and according to researches it is more traumatizing and destructive for a child than physical abuse.
Our society is now more educated and we have become more aware of our rights. We all know that sexual abuse, a sin, and physical abuse are really bad and should be avoided and stopped. Hundreds of organizations are working to stop these forms of abuse. But what about that abuse we inflict on our children everyday by by neglecting them, telling them that they are no good, worthless and stupid; shaming and humiliating a child, making negative comparisons to other children and siblings, frequent yelling and threatening them, putting high expectations on them, demanding for the fulfillment of unrealistic goals and imposing our decisions on them regardless of their own will? What do we think about all these actions? I am sure most of us have politically correct terms for these forms of violence against children.
Although emotional abuse cannot hurt as much as physical abuse does, but it can be harder to identify because the scars are left inside, hidden from the eyes. Emotional violence has long lasting effects throughout life, damaging the child’s sense of self.
Many research studies conclude that psycho-pathologic symptoms are more likely to develop in emotionally abused children. These children may experience a lifelong pattern of depression, anxiety, low self esteem, inappropriate or troubled relationships, or a lack of empathy. During their childhood victims may fail to thrive or their developmental progress may be halted. As teenagers they find it difficult to trust, participate in and achieve happiness in interpersonal relationships, and resolve the complex feelings left over from their childhood that they are no good in any thing.
Before ending up to that situation it is important, as parents or siblings, to assess your child right now for the symptoms of emotional abuse so that you can help them before they are completely crushed. Look for any of the behaviors in your child like excessively withdrawn, fearful, or anxious about doing some thing wrong, shows extreme in behaviors; extremely compliant or extremely demanding, extremely passive or extremely aggressive, doesn’t seem to be attached to you, acts either inappropriately adult (taking care of other children) or inappropriately infantile (thumb sucking, bed wetting).
Just remember, you can make a tremendous difference in the life of the child , especially if you take the steps to stop the abuse early by firstly talking to them, provide calm reassurance that they did nothing wrong , secondly allow to develop them strong attachment with you, and express warmth and positive regards for them. Finally always be there to support them in any circumstances. Now it’s up to you in which direction you mold your child’s personality positive or negative?
Pictures of landslide
two vans being taken to gojal on ships or boat or wahever that thing is called
The Attabad Landslide
Can you believe that ,after almost three months of suffering the government, well the media anyway has realized that there is a problem in hunza valley.But i doubt that they are here because they feel sorry for us but this is because of the ever increasing water which ,GOD FORBID exploded would hit the dams down stream and cause a major blow to the valley and cities down stream.
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